Ok, another thought that I had is there's this paridigm in machine learning where if you train an actor to play against itself it can enter a training loop. Imagine a rock paper scissors playing bot where gen1 plays rock and gen2 plays paper and gen3 plays scissors and gen4 plays rock again. Every stage looks like it's beating its predecessor so you might assume that the system is getting incrementally better, but actually it's running in circles.
I see this dynamic in the Flynn effect where you can train a population on a certain set of problems, when they improve on that problem set you switch problem sets and they improve on the new set while their competence on the old set that's no longer being tested declines. It looks like the population is improving, but actually it's just chasing a moving goal post. Over a century it lets you build these statistical curves that claim massive intelligence gains while intuitively it just doesn't seem correct.
Indeed - the Flynn effect's apparent increase in general intelligence simply does not add up with our per capita innovation output and genius generation rate.
A note on the idea that libertarians expected the dollar to be inflated away. While it's true that money printing causes inflation and this is a point that's important to libertarians, the real take away from Mises' theory of money and credit is that maturity transformation creates this metastable monetary system.
Briefly, the creation of new money through maturity mismatch depresses the interest rate below the natural interest rate. When a bank makes a loan based on this depressed interest rate they assume risk in the sense that if the interest rate begins to rise again the present value of their assets are going to fall faster than the present value of their liabilities. This incentivizes banks to attempt to shore up their position across the yield curve when interest rates begin to rise. They do this by not issuing new maturity mismatched loans and by liquidating as many of these assets as possible. This has the effect making it harder to get a loan, i.e. the cost of future money is higher, i.e. the interest rate increases, i.e. the process of trying to protect your bank from an increasing interest rate causes the interest rate to increase. This means that the process of moving from high dollar virtualization to complete loan maturity matching is a positive feedback / cascading process that involves the destruction of ~90% of all dollars.
For this reason the Austrian perspective is that either interest rates remain depressed indefinitely or they rise and we experience a deflationary cascade.
I appreciate it. Mises is a titan. Yarvin's essays on the topic are the easiest to understand. I can link you to some shit if you're interested. I think CGK is right, RW metapolitics is the only political space where anything interesting is actually happening.
Ok, another thought that I had is there's this paridigm in machine learning where if you train an actor to play against itself it can enter a training loop. Imagine a rock paper scissors playing bot where gen1 plays rock and gen2 plays paper and gen3 plays scissors and gen4 plays rock again. Every stage looks like it's beating its predecessor so you might assume that the system is getting incrementally better, but actually it's running in circles.
I see this dynamic in the Flynn effect where you can train a population on a certain set of problems, when they improve on that problem set you switch problem sets and they improve on the new set while their competence on the old set that's no longer being tested declines. It looks like the population is improving, but actually it's just chasing a moving goal post. Over a century it lets you build these statistical curves that claim massive intelligence gains while intuitively it just doesn't seem correct.
Indeed - the Flynn effect's apparent increase in general intelligence simply does not add up with our per capita innovation output and genius generation rate.
A note on the idea that libertarians expected the dollar to be inflated away. While it's true that money printing causes inflation and this is a point that's important to libertarians, the real take away from Mises' theory of money and credit is that maturity transformation creates this metastable monetary system.
Briefly, the creation of new money through maturity mismatch depresses the interest rate below the natural interest rate. When a bank makes a loan based on this depressed interest rate they assume risk in the sense that if the interest rate begins to rise again the present value of their assets are going to fall faster than the present value of their liabilities. This incentivizes banks to attempt to shore up their position across the yield curve when interest rates begin to rise. They do this by not issuing new maturity mismatched loans and by liquidating as many of these assets as possible. This has the effect making it harder to get a loan, i.e. the cost of future money is higher, i.e. the interest rate increases, i.e. the process of trying to protect your bank from an increasing interest rate causes the interest rate to increase. This means that the process of moving from high dollar virtualization to complete loan maturity matching is a positive feedback / cascading process that involves the destruction of ~90% of all dollars.
For this reason the Austrian perspective is that either interest rates remain depressed indefinitely or they rise and we experience a deflationary cascade.
Excellent insight. Maturity mismatching has now been added to my lexicon. Glad to have such high quality listeners!
I appreciate it. Mises is a titan. Yarvin's essays on the topic are the easiest to understand. I can link you to some shit if you're interested. I think CGK is right, RW metapolitics is the only political space where anything interesting is actually happening.
Any resources are always appreciated.
Please post names of the music pieces. Especially that banger between section 3 and 4
Excellent interview. I was walking around a city full of high rises and settled on a low rooftop amongst towers - jamming to synthwave.